S&P 500 · breadth-led · daily
Market regimes, with the evidence attached
A transparent breadth classifier for participation, momentum, and volatility across the S&P 500, with sector and stock-level context. It describes the market's current character; it does not predict prices or make trade recommendations.
Breadth is mixed without a decisive directional impulse.
Current reading as of Oct 24, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC. This is a descriptive rule-based label, not a probability of future returns.
Why this state?
- 56% of tracked stocks are above their 200-day average
- 55% of sector ETFs are above their 200-day average
- Breadth is up 13 points over 20 sessions
Participation
56%
stocks above 200-day MA
20-session change
+13 pts
breadth momentum
Sector participation
55%
context: sector ETFs above 200-day MA
Stock dispersion
17.4
context: spread of stock distance from MA
Participation map
Breadth by month
Monthly average of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day average.
latest daily reading
Classifier inputs
The three rules
The share of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day average.
Whether breadth is improving or deteriorating.
How quickly the breadth reading is changing.
State history
Recent regime transitions
1240 daily observations · state ribbon + breadth signal
Range-bound
Oct 2026–Oct 2026 · 15 sessions
Transition
Sep 2026–Oct 2026 · 15 sessions
Narrowing advance
Sep 2026–Sep 2026 · 1 sessions
Transition
Sep 2026–Sep 2026 · 3 sessions
Narrowing advance
Sep 2026–Sep 2026 · 7 sessions
Range-bound
Sep 2026–Sep 2026 · 1 sessions
Broad expansion
Aug 2026–Aug 2026 · 1 sessions
Range-bound
Aug 2026–Aug 2026 · 1 sessions
How to read this
A regime is a change in behavior
The page does not reduce the market to bull or bear. It watches whether participation is broad or narrow, improving or deteriorating, and whether the signals agree. A transition is useful information: uncertainty is part of the measurement.
Model notes
- The same breadth rules power the current label and historical timeline.
- State labels use breadth level, rolling 20-session change, and rolling 20-session volatility.
- Sector participation and stock dispersion provide context; they do not determine the state.
- Historical labels are descriptive and can be revised as new data arrives.
